Hamilton Academical 0–0 Livingston: Result & Stats

Hamilton Academical

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Livingston

7/17/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 3The Hope CBD Stadium (Hamilton)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical26%

×Draw23%

Livingston51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.80

Hamilton Academical

1.22

Livingston

1.80

Livingston creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

2.22

1.38

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Livingston

2.22

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.38

Livingston

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

49%

Hamilton Academical or Livingston

77%

Draw or Livingston

74%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

11%

Livingston wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

70%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

34%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

12%

Livingston 1+ goals

83%

Livingston 2+ goals

54%

Livingston 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

34%

Livingston (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Livingston away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Livingston defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Livingston attack 2.22 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

26%

level

23%

Livingston scores more

51%

Livingston at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

R. Cunningham← M. Miller

73'

J. McMillan← N. Cadden

73'

J. Hamilton← L. Miller

83'

C. Sibbald← K. Miller

85'

D. Lyon← T. Taiwo

Hamilton

Livingston

1

31

3

26

12

17

6

11

▼

Cadden

9

▼

Miller

18

▼

8

1

4

3

2

17

7

12

▼

18

26

9

11

▼

Miller

Manager: M. Canning

70'▲R. Cunningham←▼M. Miller

85'▲D. Lyon←▼T. Taiwo

Hamilton Academical substitutes

14Cunningham22Lyon6Phillips8Smith46Sowah19Fulton21Want

73'▲J. McMillan←▼N. Cadden

73'▲J. Hamilton←▼L. Miller

83'▲C. Sibbald←▼K. Miller

Livingston substitutes

2McMillan30Hamilton10Sibbald21Stewart4Lithgow5Saunders16Knox