Hamilton Academical 0–2 Kelty Hearts

Hamilton Academical

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kelty Hearts

11/25/2023

FA Cup · 3rd RoundZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamilton Academical60%

×Draw20%

Kelty Hearts20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.19

Hamilton Academical

2.18

Kelty Hearts

1.19

Hamilton Academical creates 83% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.86

creates per match

0.67

1.71

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.86

Kelty Hearts

0.67

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.71

Kelty Hearts

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

80%

Hamilton Academical or Kelty Hearts

80%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

40%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

37%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

89%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

64%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

37%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

70%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

33%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

75%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.86 + Kelty Hearts defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Kelty Hearts attack 0.67 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

60%

level

20%

Kelty Hearts scores more

20%

Hamilton Academical at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff