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Hamilton Academical vs Edinburgh City — League #183 2026

Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
3/9/2024League #183League #183 · Round 28ZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical68%
×Draw19%
Edinburgh City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamilton Academical
2.10
Edinburgh City
0.77

Hamilton Academical creates 173% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hamilton Academical
1.82
Edinburgh City
0.63

allows per match

Hamilton Academical
0.91
Edinburgh City
2.38

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par
Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Edinburgh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw
87%
Hamilton Academical or Edinburgh City
81%
Draw or Edinburgh City
32%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
43%
Edinburgh City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
88%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
62%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
35%
Edinburgh City 1+ goals
54%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
18%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
84%
Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.82 + Edinburgh City defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.10

Edinburgh City attack 0.63 + Hamilton Academical defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more
68%
level
19%
Edinburgh City scores more
13%

Hamilton Academical at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Hamilton Academical 1–0 Edinburgh City

Hamilton Academical beat Edinburgh City 1-0 in League #183 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at ZLX Stadium in Hamilton.