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Hamilton Academical vs Dundee — Premiership 2018

Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee
Dundee
9/29/2018PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 7New Douglas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hamilton Academical41%
×Draw25%
Dundee33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamilton Academical
1.46
Dundee
1.29

Hamilton Academical creates 13% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 85 away

creates per match

Hamilton Academical
0.91
Dundee
0.93

allows per match

Hamilton Academical
1.65
Dundee
2.00

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par
Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Dundee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw
67%
Hamilton Academical or Dundee
75%
Draw or Dundee
59%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
20%
Dundee wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
77%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
43%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
18%
Dundee 1+ goals
72%
Dundee 2+ goals
37%
Dundee 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
55%
Dundee (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Dundee away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 0.91 + Dundee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dundee attack 0.93 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more
41%
level
25%
Dundee scores more
33%

Hamilton Academical at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamilton Academical vs Dundee

Dundee beat Hamilton Academical 2-0 in Premiership on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at New Douglas Park in Hamilton.