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Hamilton Academical vs Dumbarton — League #180 2026

Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
2/1/2014League #180League #180 · Round 23New Douglas Park (Hamilton)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamilton Academical69%
×Draw16%
Dumbarton15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamilton Academical
2.83
Dumbarton
1.25

Hamilton Academical creates 126% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hamilton Academical
1.50
Dumbarton
0.83

allows per match

Hamilton Academical
1.67
Dumbarton
4.17

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw
85%
Hamilton Academical or Dumbarton
84%
Draw or Dumbarton
31%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
49%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
94%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
77%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
53%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
71%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
36%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
83%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Dumbarton defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Dumbarton attack 0.83 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more
69%
level
16%
Dumbarton scores more
15%

Hamilton Academical at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamilton Academical vs Dumbarton

Hamilton Academical and Dumbarton drew 3-3 in League #180 on February 1, 2014.

The match was played at New Douglas Park (Hamilton).