Hamilton Academical 1–0 Brechin: Result & Stats

Hamilton Academical

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brechin

7/18/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 3ZLX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical68%

×Draw18%

Brechin14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchBrechin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.94

Hamilton Academical

2.35

Brechin

0.94

Hamilton Academical creates 150% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

0.50

1.38

allows per match

3.21

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Brechin

0.50

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.38

Brechin

3.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Brechin →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

86%

Hamilton Academical or Brechin

82%

Draw or Brechin

32%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

46%

Brechin wins by 2+

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

90%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

68%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

41%

Brechin 1+ goals

61%

Brechin 2+ goals

24%

Brechin 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

83%

Brechin (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Brechin away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Brechin defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.35

Brechin attack 0.50 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

68%

level

18%

Brechin scores more

14%

Hamilton Academical at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff