Hamilton Academical vs Airdrie United

Hamilton Academical

Preview

14:00

Airdrie United

8/15/2026

League #183 · Round 3ZLX Stadium

Big match

40%

Airdrie United

model favours

37%23%40%

75% of Hamilton Academical’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

66%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hamilton Academical37%

×Draw23%

Airdrie United40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchAirdrie United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.73

Hamilton Academical

1.65

Airdrie United

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.60

0.85

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

2.00

Airdrie United

2.60

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

0.85

Airdrie United

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Airdrie United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

60%

Hamilton Academical or Airdrie United

77%

Draw or Airdrie United

63%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

18%

Airdrie United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

81%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

49%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

23%

Airdrie United 1+ goals

82%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

52%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

48%

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Airdrie United away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 2.00 + Airdrie United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Airdrie United attack 2.60 + Hamilton Academical defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

37%

level

23%

Airdrie United scores more

40%

Airdrie United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hamilton Academical score first in only 33% of matches
Both teams score in 75% of Hamilton Academical’s matches
Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Academical

LDWWD

United

WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff