Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hamburger SV vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
6/16/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hamburger SV57%
×Draw22%
VfL Osnabruck21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.93
VfL Osnabruck
1.09

Hamburger SV creates 77% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.10
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.13
VfL Osnabruck
1.75

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
79%
Hamburger SV or VfL Osnabruck
78%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
43%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
33%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
85%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
57%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
30%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
66%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
30%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
73%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.10 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + Hamburger SV defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
57%
level
22%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
21%

Hamburger SV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hamburger SV 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

Hamburger SV and VfL Osnabruck drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.