Hamburger SV 4–1 Preußen Münster: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Preußen Münster

8/31/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 4Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hamburger SV56%

×Draw22%

Preußen Münster22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SVExpected goals in this matchPreußen Münster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.13

Hamburger SV

1.96

Preußen Münster

1.13

Hamburger SV creates 73% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 34 away

2.12

creates per match

1.15

1.11

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Hamburger SV

2.12

Preußen Münster

1.15

allows per match

Hamburger SV

1.11

Preußen Münster

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

Preußen Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw

78%

Hamburger SV or Preußen Münster

78%

Draw or Preußen Münster

44%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

33%

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

86%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

58%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

31%

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

68%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

31%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

72%

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hamburger SV scores more

56%

level

22%

Preußen Münster scores more

22%

Hamburger SV at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff