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Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
11/3/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 11Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Hamburger SV54%
×Draw22%
1. FC Nürnberg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.96
1. FC Nürnberg
1.25

Hamburger SV creates 57% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 121 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.12
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.11
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
76%
Hamburger SV or 1. FC Nürnberg
78%
Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
46%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
31%
1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
86%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
58%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
31%
1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
71%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
36%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
69%
1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.12 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.38 + Hamburger SV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
54%
level
22%
1. FC Nürnberg scores more
24%

Hamburger SV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hamburger SV 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg

Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.