Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hamburger SV U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
8/13/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1HSV-Trainingsgelände

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hamburger SV U1943%
×Draw20%
Werder Bremen U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV U19
2.18
Werder Bremen U19
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19
2.42
Werder Bremen U19
2.19

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19
1.84
Werder Bremen U19
1.94

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par
Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw
63%
Hamburger SV U19 or Werder Bremen U19
80%
Draw or Werder Bremen U19
57%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
24%
Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
89%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
64%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
37%
Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
87%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
60%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.94 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.42 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.18

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.19 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more
43%
level
20%
Werder Bremen U19 scores more
37%

Hamburger SV U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hamburger SV U19 5 – 1 Werder Bremen U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Werder Bremen U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at HSV-Trainingsgelände in Hamburg.