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Hamburger SV U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
5/11/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 26Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hamburger SV U1947%
×Draw20%
St. Pauli U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV U19
2.28
St. Pauli U19
1.92

Hamburger SV U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19
2.42
St. Pauli U19
2.01

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19
1.84
St. Pauli U19
2.14

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par
St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw
67%
Hamburger SV U19 or St. Pauli U19
80%
Draw or St. Pauli U19
53%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
27%
St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
90%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
66%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
39%
St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
85%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
57%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
58%
St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.42 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.28

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more
47%
level
20%
St. Pauli U19 scores more
33%

Hamburger SV U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs St. Pauli U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat St. Pauli U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.