Hamburger SV U19 2–1 Meppen U19: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Meppen U19

2/3/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15HSV-Trainingsgelände

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hamburger SV U1953%

×Draw19%

Meppen U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchMeppen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.77

Hamburger SV U19

2.48

Meppen U19

1.77

Hamburger SV U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

2.42

creates per match

1.69

1.84

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.42

Meppen U19

1.69

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.84

Meppen U19

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

72%

Hamburger SV U19 or Meppen U19

81%

Draw or Meppen U19

47%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

33%

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

92%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

70%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

44%

Meppen U19 1+ goals

83%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

53%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.42 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.48

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

53%

level

19%

Meppen U19 scores more

28%

Hamburger SV U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–1 Meppen U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Meppen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at HSV-Trainingsgelände in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Meppen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–1 Meppen U19