Hamburger SV U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

J. Kilo 74'

N. Wallenßus 4'

R. Arabaci 83', 63'

S. Soghomonian 60' (pen)

5/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 4Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hamburger SV U1945%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1933%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.69

Hamburger SV U19

1.98

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.69

Hamburger SV U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 67 away

2.49

creates per match

1.67

1.71

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.67

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

67%

Hamburger SV U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

78%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

55%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

25%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

86%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

59%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

31%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

50%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.67 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

33%

Hamburger SV U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

N. Wallenßus

46'

I. Jeng← K. Tchouange

46'

K. Reitmaier← P. Geisler

46'

L. Wagemann← T. Grulke

46'

M. Quiala Tito← K. Affo

53'

R. Arabaci← D. Bunk

57'

D. Rath← N. Hoffmann

57'

Fábio Baldé← N. Wallenßus

57'

L. Butkovic← G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

60'

S. SoghomonianPenalty

63'

R. Arabaci

73'

J. Kilo← B. Yalcinkaya

74'

J. Kilo

83'

R. Arabaci

88'

P. Srougbo← E. Appiah

Hamburger

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wallenßus

▼

Kiveta-Nd

Manager: O. Kirch

57'▲D. Rath←▼N. Hoffmann

57'▲Fábio Baldé←▼N. Wallenßus

57'▲L. Butkovic←▼G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

73'▲J. Kilo←▼B. Yalcinkaya

88'▲P. Srougbo←▼E. Appiah

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

RathBaldéButkovicKiloSrougboNtsiakohHeinbockel

Manager: J. Langeneke

46'▲I. Jeng←▼K. Tchouange

46'▲K. Reitmaier←▼P. Geisler

46'▲L. Wagemann←▼T. Grulke

46'▲M. Quiala Tito←▼K. Affo

53'▲R. Arabaci←▼D. Bunk

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

JengReitmaierWagemannTitoArabaciStarekWeingarten

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: N. Wallenßus (4'), S. Soghomonian (60' pen), R. Arabaci (63', 83'), J. Kilo (74').

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19