Hamburger SV U19 5–0 Chemnitzer FC U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

O. Heil 80'

A. Opoku 67'

T. Fagerström 57', 48'

M. Drawz 17'

2/18/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18Kunstrasen am Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hamburger SV U1960%

×Draw18%

Chemnitzer FC U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.55

Hamburger SV U19

2.65

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.55

Hamburger SV U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 53 away

2.52

creates per match

1.42

1.69

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.52

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.42

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.69

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

79%

Hamburger SV U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

82%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

40%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

40%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

93%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

74%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

48%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

79%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

46%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.69 · 77 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.77 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.52 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.65

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.42 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

60%

level

18%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

21%

Hamburger SV U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Drawz

48'

T. Fagerström

57'

T. Fagerström

60'

L. John← N. Ott

60'

M. Kreckel← B. Trinks

61'

D. Cyriacks← J. David

61'

I. Isler← E. Krasniqi

67'

A. Opoku

76'

O. Heil← A. Opoku

80'

J. Ulbricht← T. Fagerström

80'

O. Heil

89'

J. Müller← M. Grätz

Hamburger

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Fagerströ

Geißen

⚽

Drawz

⚽

▼

Opoku

▼

Krasniqi

Manager: D. Petrowsky

61'▲D. Cyriacks←▼J. David

61'▲I. Isler←▼E. Krasniqi

76'▲O. Heil←▼A. Opoku

80'▲J. Ulbricht←▼T. Fagerström

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

CyriacksIslerHeilUlbrichtHarrPinckertWohlers

Manager: K. Jendrossek

60'▲L. John←▼N. Ott

60'▲M. Kreckel←▼B. Trinks

89'▲J. Müller←▼M. Grätz

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

JohnKreckelMüllerKühneJung

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 18, 2018.

Goals: M. Drawz (17'), T. Fagerström (48', 57'), A. Opoku (67'), O. Heil (80').

The match was played at Kunstrasen am Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19