Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hamburger SV U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
8/23/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 3Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hamburger SV U1950%
×Draw20%
Carl Zeiss Jena U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV U19
2.25
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
1.73

Hamburger SV U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 47 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19
2.42
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
1.62

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19
1.84
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
2.09

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par
Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw
70%
Hamburger SV U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19
80%
Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19
50%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
30%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
89%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
65%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
39%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals
82%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals
52%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.42 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.25

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.62 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more
50%
level
20%
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more
30%

Hamburger SV U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.