Hamburger SV U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bayer Leverkusen U19

H. Schümann 27'

A. Natali 69'

A. Kister 16'

K. Alajbegović 7'

2/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 2Kunstrasen am Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hamburger SV U1938%

×Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen U1941%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.96

Hamburger SV U19

1.90

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 64 away

2.49

creates per match

2.20

1.71

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.20

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

59%

Hamburger SV U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

79%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

62%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

20%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

85%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

56%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

29%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

86%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

58%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

38%

level

21%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

41%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

K. Alajbegović

16'

A. Kister

27'

H. Schümann

61'

N. Tuppeck← C. Nana-Sarhene

69'

A. Natali

78'

J. Hartig← H. Schümann

78'

Kilian Machado← K. Ojo

86'

A. Heard← E. Owen

87'

M. Szép← A. Stepanov

89'

J. Ade← A. Riedel

90+1'

S. Đedović← K. Alajbegović

Hamburger

Bayer

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

61'▲N. Tuppeck←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

78'▲J. Hartig←▼H. Schümann

78'▲Kilian Machado←▼K. Ojo

89'▲J. Ade←▼A. Riedel

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

TuppeckHartigMachadoAdeSuljevicRichardtBrätz

Manager: Sergi Runge

86'▲A. Heard←▼E. Owen

87'▲M. Szép←▼A. Stepanov

90+1'▲S. Đedović←▼K. Alajbegović

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

HeardSzépĐedovićKurowskiFeratiSchrief

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 9, 2025.

Goals: K. Alajbegović (7'), A. Kister (16'), H. Schümann (27'), A. Natali (69').

The match was played at Kunstrasen am Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19