Hamburger SV II 7–1 SV Eichede: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV II

FT

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

SV Eichede

1/26/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasen am Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamburger SV II67%

×Draw16%

SV Eichede17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV IIExpected goals in this matchSV Eichede

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.41

Hamburger SV II

2.90

SV Eichede

1.41

Hamburger SV II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.29

creates per match

0.67

2.14

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Hamburger SV II

2.29

SV Eichede

0.67

allows per match

Hamburger SV II

2.14

SV Eichede

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV II+0.00on par

SV Eichede+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV II ↓

SV Eichede →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hamburger SV II or draw

83%

Hamburger SV II or SV Eichede

84%

Draw or SV Eichede

33%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV II wins by 2+

47%

SV Eichede wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hamburger SV II 1+ goals

94%

Hamburger SV II 2+ goals

78%

Hamburger SV II 3+ goals

54%

SV Eichede 1+ goals

76%

SV Eichede 2+ goals

41%

SV Eichede 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV II (draw refunded)

80%

SV Eichede (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

SV Eichede away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV II attack 2.29 + SV Eichede defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

SV Eichede attack 0.67 + Hamburger SV II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hamburger SV II scores more

67%

level

16%

SV Eichede scores more

17%

Hamburger SV II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hamburger SV II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff