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Hamburger SV II vs Hobro — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hamburger SV II
Hamburger SV II
FT
1 – 2
Hobro
Hobro
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hamburger SV II52%
×Draw20%
Hobro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV II
2.27
Hobro
1.64

Hamburger SV II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV II
2.29
Hobro
1.13

allows per match

Hamburger SV II
2.14
Hobro
2.25

finishing

Hamburger SV II+0.00on par
Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV II ↓

Hobro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Hamburger SV II or draw
72%
Hamburger SV II or Hobro
80%
Draw or Hobro
48%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV II wins by 2+
31%
Hobro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hamburger SV II 1+ goals
90%
Hamburger SV II 2+ goals
66%
Hamburger SV II 3+ goals
39%
Hobro 1+ goals
81%
Hobro 2+ goals
49%
Hobro 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV II (draw refunded)
65%
Hobro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV II attack 2.29 + Hobro defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Hobro attack 1.13 + Hamburger SV II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hamburger SV II scores more
52%
level
20%
Hobro scores more
28%

Hamburger SV II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hamburger SV II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamburger SV II vs Hobro

Hobro beat Hamburger SV II 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.