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Hamburger SV II vs Hannover 96 II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hamburger SV II
Hamburger SV II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Hannover 96 II
Hannover 96 II
N. Tuppeck 83'
M. Sinanovic 84'
T. Hobrecht 56'
M. Ndikom 37'
N. Engelbreth 2'
2/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hamburger SV II49%
×Draw19%
Hannover 96 II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV II
2.45
Hannover 96 II
1.97

Hamburger SV II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV II
2.29
Hannover 96 II
1.80

allows per match

Hamburger SV II
2.14
Hannover 96 II
2.60

finishing

Hamburger SV II+0.00on par
Hannover 96 II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV II ↓

Hannover 96 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Hamburger SV II or draw
68%
Hamburger SV II or Hannover 96 II
81%
Draw or Hannover 96 II
51%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV II wins by 2+
30%
Hannover 96 II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hamburger SV II 1+ goals
91%
Hamburger SV II 2+ goals
70%
Hamburger SV II 3+ goals
44%
Hannover 96 II 1+ goals
86%
Hannover 96 II 2+ goals
58%
Hannover 96 II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV II (draw refunded)
61%
Hannover 96 II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Hannover 96 II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV II attack 2.29 + Hannover 96 II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.45

Hannover 96 II attack 1.80 + Hamburger SV II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hamburger SV II scores more
49%
level
19%
Hannover 96 II scores more
32%

Hamburger SV II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hamburger SV II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
N. Engelbreth
37'
M. Ndikom
56'
T. Hobrecht
83'
N. Tuppeck
84'
M. Sinanovic
Hamburger
Hannover
S. Uysal
Manager: S. Uysal
D. Stendel
Manager: D. Stendel

Friendlies Clubs: Hamburger SV II 1–4 Hannover 96 II

Hannover 96 II beat Hamburger SV II 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2026.

Goals: N. Engelbreth (2'), M. Ndikom (37'), T. Hobrecht (56'), N. Tuppeck (83'), M. Sinanovic (84').