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Hamburger SV II vs Eimsbütteler TV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hamburger SV II
Hamburger SV II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Eimsbütteler TV
Eimsbütteler TV
K. Ojo 90'
Unknown 78'
N. Prabakaran 38'
G. Kiveta Ndongalasiya 33' (pen)
A. Riedel 25'
Unknown 65'
1/29/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamburger SV II54%
×Draw20%
Eimsbütteler TV26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV II
2.31
Eimsbütteler TV
1.57

Hamburger SV II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV II
2.29
Eimsbütteler TV
1.00

allows per match

Hamburger SV II
2.14
Eimsbütteler TV
2.33

finishing

Hamburger SV II+0.00on par
Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV II ↓

Eimsbütteler TV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hamburger SV II or draw
74%
Hamburger SV II or Eimsbütteler TV
80%
Draw or Eimsbütteler TV
46%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV II wins by 2+
33%
Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hamburger SV II 1+ goals
90%
Hamburger SV II 2+ goals
67%
Hamburger SV II 3+ goals
40%
Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals
79%
Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals
46%
Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV II (draw refunded)
67%
Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Eimsbütteler TV away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV II attack 2.29 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Eimsbütteler TV attack 1.00 + Hamburger SV II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hamburger SV II scores more
54%
level
20%
Eimsbütteler TV scores more
26%

Hamburger SV II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hamburger SV II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
A. Riedel
33'
G. Kiveta NdongalasiyaPenalty
38'
N. Prabakaran
65'
78'
90'
K. Ojo
Hamburger
Eimsbütteler
S. Uysal
Manager: S. Uysal
K. Atamimi
Manager: K. Atamimi

Hamburger SV II 5 – 1 Eimsbütteler TV

Hamburger SV II beat Eimsbütteler TV 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2026.

Goals: A. Riedel (25'), G. Kiveta Ndongalasiya (33' pen), N. Prabakaran (38'), ? (65', 78'), K. Ojo (90').