Hamburger SV II vs BW Lohne — League #84 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Hamburger SV II62%
BW Lohne21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hamburger SV II creates 72% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over85
- Under15
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes79
- No21
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hamburger SV II ↓
Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hamburger SV II at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
BW Lohne away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hamburger SV II attack 3.67 + BW Lohne defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.04
BW Lohne attack 2.20 + Hamburger SV II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Hamburger SV II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Hamburger SV II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Hamburger SV II substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
SV Drochtersen/Assel
SV Meppen
Phönix Lübeck
Kickers Emden
Bremer SV
VfB Oldenburg
HSC Hannover
Altona 93
Weiche FlensburgHamburger SV II
Hannover 96 II
Werder Bremen II
SSV Jeddeloh
Eintracht Norderstedt
St. Pauli II
VfB LübeckBW Lohne
SchöningenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hamburger SV II host BW Lohne on Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #84 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Hamburger SV II vs BW Lohne
Hamburger SV II and BW Lohne drew 3-3 in League #84 on March 15, 2025.
Goals: L. Seifert (5' o.g.), O. Stange (50'), O. Sillah (55' pen), Fábio Baldé (64'), F. Schmiederer (82'), R. Sandu (90+5').
The match was played at Stadion Hoheluft in Hamburg.