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Hamburger SV II vs AC Horsens — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hamburger SV II
Hamburger SV II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
AC Horsens
AC Horsens
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hamburger SV II40%
×Draw22%
AC Horsens37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV II
1.78
AC Horsens
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV II
2.29
AC Horsens
1.27

allows per match

Hamburger SV II
2.14
AC Horsens
1.27

finishing

Hamburger SV II+0.00on par
AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV II ↓

AC Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hamburger SV II or draw
63%
Hamburger SV II or AC Horsens
78%
Draw or AC Horsens
60%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV II wins by 2+
21%
AC Horsens wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hamburger SV II 1+ goals
83%
Hamburger SV II 2+ goals
53%
Hamburger SV II 3+ goals
26%
AC Horsens 1+ goals
82%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
51%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV II (draw refunded)
52%
AC Horsens (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV II attack 2.29 + AC Horsens defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

AC Horsens attack 1.27 + Hamburger SV II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hamburger SV II scores more
40%
level
22%
AC Horsens scores more
37%

Hamburger SV II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hamburger SV II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hamburger
AC
S. Uysal
Manager: S. Uysal
David Nielsen
Manager: David Nielsen

Friendlies Clubs: Hamburger SV II 1–5 AC Horsens

AC Horsens beat Hamburger SV II 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.