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Hambericho Durame vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
6/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame16%
×Draw27%
Sidama Bunna58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.62
Sidama Bunna
1.46

Sidama Bunna creates 135% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
42%
Hambericho Durame or Sidama Bunna
73%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
84%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
4%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
46%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
13%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
3%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
77%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
43%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
22%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.62

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
16%
level
27%
Sidama Bunna scores more
58%

Sidama Bunna at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hambericho Durame vs Sidama Bunna

Sidama Bunna beat Hambericho Durame 2-0 in Premier League on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.