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Hambericho Durame vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
10/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame15%
×Draw29%
Hadiya Hosaena56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.52
Hadiya Hosaena
1.30

Hadiya Hosaena creates 150% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–121%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
44%
Hambericho Durame or Hadiya Hosaena
71%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
85%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
3%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
41%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
10%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
2%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
73%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
37%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
21%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.52

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
15%
level
29%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
56%

Hadiya Hosaena at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hambericho Durame vs Hadiya Hosaena

Hambericho Durame and Hadiya Hosaena drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.