Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hambericho Durame vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
12/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame11%
×Draw24%
Ethiopian Medhin65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hambericho Durame
0.47
Ethiopian Medhin
1.58

Ethiopian Medhin creates 236% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hambericho Durame
0.13
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Hambericho Durame
1.73
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–120%
0–216%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw
35%
Hambericho Durame or Ethiopian Medhin
76%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
89%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
2%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
37%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
8%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
1%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
79%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
47%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
14%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.47

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more
11%
level
24%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
65%

Ethiopian Medhin at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hambericho Durame 0–2 Ethiopian Medhin

Ethiopian Medhin beat Hambericho Durame 2-0 in Premier League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.