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Hamar vs Vestri — Cup 2019

Hamar
Hamar
FT
0 – 3
Vestri
Vestri
4/25/2021CupCup · 1st RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hamar19%
×Draw22%
Vestri59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamar
1.00
Vestri
1.95

Vestri creates 95% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hamar
0.50
Vestri
1.90

allows per match

Hamar
2.00
Vestri
1.50

finishing

Hamar+0.00on par
Vestri+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamar ↓

Vestri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hamar or draw
41%
Hamar or Vestri
78%
Draw or Vestri
81%

Winning margin

Hamar wins by 2+
7%
Vestri wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Hamar 1+ goals
63%
Hamar 2+ goals
26%
Hamar 3+ goals
8%
Vestri 1+ goals
86%
Vestri 2+ goals
58%
Vestri 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hamar (draw refunded)
24%
Vestri (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamar at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Vestri away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamar attack 0.50 + Vestri defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vestri attack 1.90 + Hamar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hamar scores more
19%
level
22%
Vestri scores more
59%

Vestri at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hamar 0–3 Vestri

Vestri beat Hamar 3-0 in Cup on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.