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Haman vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K4 League 2026

Haman
Haman
FT
0 – 2
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
3/7/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haman32%
×Draw23%
Pyeongtaek Citizen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haman
1.42
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.73

Pyeongtaek Citizen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Haman
1.00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Haman
2.29
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.83

finishing

Haman+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haman ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Haman or draw
55%
Haman or Pyeongtaek Citizen
77%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
68%

Winning margin

Haman wins by 2+
14%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Haman 1+ goals
76%
Haman 2+ goals
41%
Haman 3+ goals
17%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
82%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
52%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Haman (draw refunded)
41%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haman attack 1.00 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Haman defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Haman scores more
32%
level
23%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
45%

Pyeongtaek Citizen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pyeongtaek Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haman vs Pyeongtaek Citizen

Pyeongtaek Citizen beat Haman 2-0 in K4 League on March 7, 2026.