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Haman vs Jinju Citizen — K4 League 2026

Haman
Haman
FT
0 – 4
Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
5/31/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haman11%
×Draw16%
Jinju Citizen73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haman
0.83
Jinju Citizen
2.48

Jinju Citizen creates 199% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Haman
1.00
Jinju Citizen
2.67

allows per match

Haman
2.29
Jinju Citizen
0.67

finishing

Haman+0.00on par
Jinju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haman ↓

Jinju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Haman or draw
27%
Haman or Jinju Citizen
84%
Draw or Jinju Citizen
89%

Winning margin

Haman wins by 2+
3%
Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Haman 1+ goals
56%
Haman 2+ goals
20%
Haman 3+ goals
5%
Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
92%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
70%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Haman (draw refunded)
13%
Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Jinju Citizen away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haman attack 1.00 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Jinju Citizen attack 2.67 + Haman defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Haman scores more
11%
level
16%
Jinju Citizen scores more
73%

Jinju Citizen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Haman 0–4 Jinju Citizen

Jinju Citizen beat Haman 4-0 in K4 League on May 31, 2026.