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Haman vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Haman
Haman
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
6/27/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Haman22%
×Draw21%
Geumsan Insam57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haman
1.22
Geumsan Insam
2.09

Geumsan Insam creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Haman
1.00
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Haman
2.29
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Haman+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haman ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Haman or draw
43%
Haman or Geumsan Insam
79%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
78%

Winning margin

Haman wins by 2+
9%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Haman 1+ goals
70%
Haman 2+ goals
34%
Haman 3+ goals
12%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
88%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
62%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Haman (draw refunded)
28%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haman attack 1.00 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Haman defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Haman scores more
22%
level
21%
Geumsan Insam scores more
57%

Geumsan Insam at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haman vs Geumsan Insam

Geumsan Insam beat Haman 3-1 in K4 League on June 27, 2026.