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Haman vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Haman
Haman
FT
2 – 2
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
4/11/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Haman20%
×Draw22%
Geoje Citizen58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haman
1.06
Geoje Citizen
1.96

Geoje Citizen creates 85% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Haman
1.00
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Haman
2.29
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Haman+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haman ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Haman or draw
42%
Haman or Geoje Citizen
78%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
80%

Winning margin

Haman wins by 2+
7%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Haman 1+ goals
65%
Haman 2+ goals
29%
Haman 3+ goals
9%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
86%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
58%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Haman (draw refunded)
26%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haman at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haman attack 1.00 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Haman defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Haman scores more
20%
level
22%
Geoje Citizen scores more
58%

Geoje Citizen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haman vs Geoje Citizen

Haman and Geoje Citizen drew 2-2 in K4 League on April 11, 2026.