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Ham-Kam vs jerv — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
jerv
jerv
A. Melgalvis 49', 28'
M. Wichmann 63'
10/2/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 24Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ham-Kam57%
×Draw21%
jerv22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
2.03
jerv
1.17

Ham-Kam creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.39
jerv
1.00

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.33
jerv
2.67

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.00on par
jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

jerv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
78%
Ham-Kam or jerv
79%
Draw or jerv
43%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
34%
jerv wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
87%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
60%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
33%
jerv 1+ goals
69%
jerv 2+ goals
33%
jerv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
73%
jerv (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

jerv away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.39 + jerv defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.03

jerv attack 1.00 + Ham-Kam defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
57%
level
21%
jerv scores more
22%

Ham-Kam at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
A. MelgalvisHam-KamHam-Kam · D
8.3

Match Events

17'
K. Hernández-Foster← F. Sjølstad
20'
Ask Tjaerandsen-Skau
28'
A. Melgalvis↳ M. Bjørlo
34'
Amin Nouri
46'
J. Enkerud← M. Pedersen
49'
A. Melgalvis↳ P. Kirkevold
61'
M. Wichmann← L. Fernandes
61'
M. Haarup← I. Mafi
63'
M. Wichmann↳ E. Brenden
67'
E. Sildnes← K. Onsrud
72'
E. Hustad← E. Brenden
76'
V. Lind← P. Kirkevold
81'
J. Cijntje← D. Håkans
81'
E. Sandberg← A. Diallo
83'
Hassan Kurucay

Possession

Ham-Kam: 41jerv: 5941%Ham-Kam

Shots

Ham-Kam: 18jerv: 1318Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

Ham-Kam: 67jerv: 7647%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-Kamjerv
Overview
41%Possession59%
18Total Shots13
4Corners6
14Fouls5
Shots
18Total Shots13
6On Target7
9Off Target3
3Blocked3
13Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
334Total Passes475
225Accurate Passes359
67%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls5
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Ham-Kam 2 – 1 jerv

Ham-Kam beat jerv 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 2, 2022.

Goals: A. Melgalvis (28', 49'), M. Wichmann (63').

jerv controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.