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Ham-Kam vs Floro — 1. Division 2018

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Floro
Floro
5/21/20181. Division1. Division · Round 9Briskeby Arena (Hamar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ham-Kam59%
×Draw22%
Floro20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.99
Floro
1.06

Ham-Kam creates 88% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.92
Floro
0.73

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.40
Floro
2.07

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
80%
Ham-Kam or Floro
78%
Draw or Floro
41%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
35%
Floro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
86%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
59%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
32%
Floro 1+ goals
65%
Floro 2+ goals
29%
Floro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
75%
Floro (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Floro away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.92 + Floro defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.99

Floro attack 0.73 + Ham-Kam defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
59%
level
22%
Floro scores more
20%

Ham-Kam at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ham-Kam 3 – 0 Floro

Ham-Kam beat Floro 3-0 in 1. Division on May 21, 2018.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena (Hamar).