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Halsen vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
2 – 7
HT: 1 – 2
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
4/18/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 2Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Halsen38%
×Draw22%
Vindbjart41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
1.82
Vindbjart
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Halsen
1.92
Vindbjart
1.56

allows per match

Halsen
2.23
Vindbjart
1.72

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
59%
Halsen or Vindbjart
78%
Draw or Vindbjart
62%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
20%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
84%
Halsen 2+ goals
54%
Halsen 3+ goals
27%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
85%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
56%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
48%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 1.92 + Vindbjart defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

Vindbjart attack 1.56 + Halsen defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Halsen scores more
38%
level
22%
Vindbjart scores more
41%

Vindbjart at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halsen vs Vindbjart

Vindbjart beat Halsen 7-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.