Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Halsen vs Strømsgodset II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Halsen
Halsen
CANC
14:00
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
10/17/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 11Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Halsen41%
×Draw21%
Strømsgodset II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.00
Strømsgodset II
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Halsen
2.00
Strømsgodset II
2.57

allows per match

Halsen
1.29
Strømsgodset II
2.00

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
62%
Halsen or Strømsgodset II
79%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
59%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
22%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
86%
Halsen 2+ goals
59%
Halsen 3+ goals
32%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
85%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
57%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
52%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 2.00 + Strømsgodset II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Strømsgodset II attack 2.57 + Halsen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Halsen scores more
41%
level
21%
Strømsgodset II scores more
38%

Halsen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Halsen host Strømsgodset II

October 17, 2020: Halsen take on Strømsgodset II in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Halsen host Strømsgodset II at Bergeskogen idrettspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.