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Halsen vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Start II
Start II
10/29/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 26Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Halsen51%
×Draw20%
Start II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.38
Start II
1.80

Halsen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Halsen
1.92
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Halsen
2.23
Start II
2.85

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
70%
Halsen or Start II
80%
Draw or Start II
49%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
31%
Start II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
91%
Halsen 2+ goals
68%
Halsen 3+ goals
42%
Start II 1+ goals
83%
Start II 2+ goals
54%
Start II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
63%
Start II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 1.92 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.38

Start II attack 1.38 + Halsen defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Halsen scores more
51%
level
20%
Start II scores more
30%

Halsen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halsen vs Start II

Halsen and Start II drew 4-4 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.