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Halsen vs Sandefjord II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
6/24/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 11Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Halsen48%
×Draw20%
Sandefjord II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.38
Sandefjord II
1.96

Halsen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Halsen
1.92
Sandefjord II
1.69

allows per match

Halsen
2.23
Sandefjord II
2.85

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Sandefjord II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Sandefjord II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
67%
Halsen or Sandefjord II
80%
Draw or Sandefjord II
52%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
29%
Sandefjord II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
91%
Halsen 2+ goals
68%
Halsen 3+ goals
42%
Sandefjord II 1+ goals
86%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
58%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
59%
Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Sandefjord II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 1.92 + Sandefjord II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sandefjord II attack 1.69 + Halsen defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Halsen scores more
48%
level
20%
Sandefjord II scores more
33%

Halsen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halsen vs Sandefjord II

Halsen and Sandefjord II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.