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Halsen vs Oppsal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Halsen
Halsen
CANC
14:00
Oppsal
Oppsal
10/3/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 9Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Halsen57%
×Draw22%
Oppsal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.00
Oppsal
1.15

Halsen creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Halsen
2.00
Oppsal
1.00

allows per match

Halsen
1.29
Oppsal
2.00

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Oppsal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Oppsal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
78%
Halsen or Oppsal
78%
Draw or Oppsal
43%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
34%
Oppsal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
86%
Halsen 2+ goals
59%
Halsen 3+ goals
32%
Oppsal 1+ goals
68%
Oppsal 2+ goals
32%
Oppsal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
73%
Oppsal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Oppsal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 2.00 + Oppsal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Oppsal attack 1.00 + Halsen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Halsen scores more
57%
level
22%
Oppsal scores more
22%

Halsen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Halsen host Oppsal

October 3, 2020: Halsen take on Oppsal in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Halsen host Oppsal at Bergeskogen idrettspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.