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Halsen vs Odd II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Odd II
Odd II
9/30/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 22Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Halsen39%
×Draw21%
Odd II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
1.98
Odd II
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Halsen
1.92
Odd II
1.80

allows per match

Halsen
2.23
Odd II
2.05

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Odd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
60%
Halsen or Odd II
79%
Draw or Odd II
61%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
21%
Odd II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
86%
Halsen 2+ goals
59%
Halsen 3+ goals
31%
Odd II 1+ goals
87%
Odd II 2+ goals
60%
Odd II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
49%
Odd II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Odd II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 1.92 + Odd II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.98

Odd II attack 1.80 + Halsen defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halsen scores more
39%
level
21%
Odd II scores more
40%

Odd II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Halsen 1–2 Odd II

Odd II beat Halsen 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.