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Halsen vs Hønefoss — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Halsen
Halsen
CANC
14:00
Hønefoss
Hønefoss
9/19/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 7Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Halsen37%
×Draw22%
Hønefoss41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
1.75
Hønefoss
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 32 away

creates per match

Halsen
2.00
Hønefoss
2.44

allows per match

Halsen
1.29
Hønefoss
1.50

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Hønefoss+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Hønefoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
59%
Halsen or Hønefoss
78%
Draw or Hønefoss
63%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
19%
Hønefoss wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
83%
Halsen 2+ goals
52%
Halsen 3+ goals
25%
Hønefoss 1+ goals
84%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
55%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
47%
Hønefoss (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Hønefoss away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 2.00 + Hønefoss defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hønefoss attack 2.44 + Halsen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Halsen scores more
37%
level
22%
Hønefoss scores more
41%

Hønefoss at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Halsen face Hønefoss (3. Division - Girone 2)

3. Division - Girone 2 returns with Halsen hosting Hønefoss. Match starts September 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Halsen host Hønefoss at Bergeskogen idrettspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.