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Halsen vs Fram — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fram
Fram
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 26Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Halsen28%
×Draw22%
Fram50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
1.50
Fram
2.04

Fram creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Halsen
1.92
Fram
1.85

allows per match

Halsen
2.23
Fram
1.08

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
50%
Halsen or Fram
78%
Draw or Fram
72%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
13%
Fram wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
78%
Halsen 2+ goals
44%
Halsen 3+ goals
19%
Fram 1+ goals
87%
Fram 2+ goals
60%
Fram 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
36%
Fram (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Fram away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 1.92 + Fram defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fram attack 1.85 + Halsen defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Halsen scores more
28%
level
22%
Fram scores more
50%

Fram at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halsen vs Fram

Fram beat Halsen 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.