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Halsen vs Flint — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Halsen
Halsen
CANC
14:00
Flint
Flint
8/29/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 4Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Halsen57%
×Draw21%
Flint23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.15
Flint
1.29

Halsen creates 67% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Halsen
2.00
Flint
1.29

allows per match

Halsen
1.29
Flint
2.29

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Flint+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Flint →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
77%
Halsen or Flint
79%
Draw or Flint
43%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
35%
Flint wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
88%
Halsen 2+ goals
63%
Halsen 3+ goals
36%
Flint 1+ goals
72%
Flint 2+ goals
37%
Flint 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
72%
Flint (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Flint away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 2.00 + Flint defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Flint attack 1.29 + Halsen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Halsen scores more
57%
level
21%
Flint scores more
23%

Halsen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Halsen host Flint

August 29, 2020: Halsen take on Flint in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Halsen host Flint at Bergeskogen idrettspark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.