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Halsen vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Halsen
Halsen
FT
3 – 0
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
8/14/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 2Bergeskogen idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Halsen71%
×Draw15%
Åssiden IF14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halsen
2.92
Åssiden IF
1.23

Halsen creates 137% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Halsen
2.00
Åssiden IF
1.17

allows per match

Halsen
1.29
Åssiden IF
3.83

finishing

Halsen+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halsen ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Halsen or draw
86%
Halsen or Åssiden IF
85%
Draw or Åssiden IF
29%

Winning margin

Halsen wins by 2+
51%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Halsen 1+ goals
94%
Halsen 2+ goals
78%
Halsen 3+ goals
55%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
71%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
35%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Halsen (draw refunded)
84%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halsen attack 2.00 + Åssiden IF defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Åssiden IF attack 1.17 + Halsen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Halsen scores more
71%
level
15%
Åssiden IF scores more
14%

Halsen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Halsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Halsen 3–0 Åssiden IF

Halsen beat Åssiden IF 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Bergeskogen idrettspark in Larvik.