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Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK — Allsvenskan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
8/26/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 20Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Halmstad40%
×Draw28%
Vasteras SK FK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.22
Vasteras SK FK
1.07

Halmstad creates 14% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 22 away

creates per match

Halmstad
0.94
Vasteras SK FK
0.95

allows per match

Halmstad
1.19
Vasteras SK FK
1.50

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
68%
Halmstad or Vasteras SK FK
72%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
60%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
17%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
70%
Halmstad 2+ goals
34%
Halmstad 3+ goals
12%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
66%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
29%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
55%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 0.94 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vasteras SK FK attack 0.95 + Halmstad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halmstad scores more
40%
level
28%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
32%

Halmstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK

Vasteras SK FK beat Halmstad 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 26, 2024.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.