Halmstad 0–0 Vasteras SK FK: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasteras SK FK

2/27/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Skedalahed IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Halmstad36%

×Draw26%

Vasteras SK FK38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchVasteras SK FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.33

Halmstad

1.30

Vasteras SK FK

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

1.58

1.09

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Halmstad

1.45

Vasteras SK FK

1.58

allows per match

Halmstad

1.09

Vasteras SK FK

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Vasteras SK FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

62%

Halmstad or Vasteras SK FK

74%

Draw or Vasteras SK FK

64%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

16%

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

73%

Halmstad 2+ goals

37%

Halmstad 3+ goals

14%

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

74%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

38%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

49%

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.45 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.58 + Halmstad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Halmstad scores more

36%

level

26%

Vasteras SK FK scores more

38%

Vasteras SK FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff