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Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Allsvenskan 2018

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
7/29/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 17Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Halmstad42%
×Draw26%
Varbergs BoIS FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.40
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.20

Halmstad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Halmstad
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.21

allows per match

Halmstad
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.85

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
68%
Halmstad or Varbergs BoIS FC
74%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
58%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
20%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
75%
Halmstad 2+ goals
41%
Halmstad 3+ goals
17%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
70%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
34%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
56%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 0.94 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + Halmstad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Halmstad scores more
42%
level
26%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
32%

Halmstad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Halmstad 0–5 Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Halmstad 5-0 in Allsvenskan on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.