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Halmstad vs Tvååker — Svenska Cupen 2019

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tvååker
Tvååker
3/7/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Skedalahed IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Halmstad20%
×Draw24%
Tvååker57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
0.93
Tvååker
1.75

Tvååker creates 88% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.45
Tvååker
2.40

allows per match

Halmstad
1.09
Tvååker
0.40

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Tvååker+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Tvååker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
43%
Halmstad or Tvååker
76%
Draw or Tvååker
80%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
7%
Tvååker wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
61%
Halmstad 2+ goals
24%
Halmstad 3+ goals
7%
Tvååker 1+ goals
83%
Tvååker 2+ goals
52%
Tvååker 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
26%
Tvååker (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Tvååker away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.45 + Tvååker defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Tvååker attack 2.40 + Halmstad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Halmstad scores more
20%
level
24%
Tvååker scores more
57%

Tvååker at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Halmstad 2–1 Tvååker

Halmstad beat Tvååker 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Skedalahed IP Konstgräs in Halmstad.