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Halmstad vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sirius
Sirius
R. Ure 76'
8/9/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 19Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Halmstad37%
×Draw25%
Sirius37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.40
Sirius
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.18
Sirius
1.34

allows per match

Halmstad
1.46
Sirius
1.62

finishing

Halmstad-0.22scores less
Sirius+0.21scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
63%
Halmstad or Sirius
75%
Draw or Sirius
63%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
17%
Sirius wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
75%
Halmstad 2+ goals
41%
Halmstad 3+ goals
17%
Sirius 1+ goals
75%
Sirius 2+ goals
41%
Sirius 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
50%
Sirius (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.18 + Sirius defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sirius attack 1.34 + Halmstad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Halmstad scores more
37%
level
25%
Sirius scores more
37%

Halmstad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
L. WaltaSiriusSirius · M
8.0

Match Events

46'
R. Ascone← L. Arvidsson
58'
Marcus Lindberg
62'
B. Milovanov← S. Sandberg
62'
N. Milleskog← I. Bjerkebo
70'
Gabriel Wallentin
72'
R. Ure← M. Lindberg
76'
R. Ure
77'
P. Chrupalla← N. Maenpaa
77'
E. Yeboah← G. Eyjolfsson
90+4'
Filip Schyberg
90+3'
Emmanuel Yeboah
90'
F. Schyberg← P. Gregor

Possession

50%Halmstad

Shots

5Halmstad

Pass accuracy

51%Halmstad

Statistics

HalmstadSirius
Overview
50%Possession50%
5Total Shots16
0.47Expected Goals (xG)1.86
8Corners8
14Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots16
1On Target2
2Off Target8
2Blocked6
4Inside Box13
1Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
391Total Passes400
309Accurate Passes305
79%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Sirius

Sirius beat Halmstad 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 9, 2025.

Goals: R. Ure (76').

Halmstad controlled possession (50%) and registered 5 shots to 16.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.