Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Halmstad vs IK brage — Superettan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
11/5/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 30Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Halmstad48%
×Draw25%
IK brage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.61
IK brage
1.13

Halmstad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 127 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.79
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Halmstad
0.95
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
73%
Halmstad or IK brage
75%
Draw or IK brage
52%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
25%
IK brage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
80%
Halmstad 2+ goals
48%
Halmstad 3+ goals
22%
IK brage 1+ goals
68%
IK brage 2+ goals
31%
IK brage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
64%
IK brage (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 61 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.79 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

IK brage attack 1.30 + Halmstad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Halmstad scores more
48%
level
25%
IK brage scores more
27%

Halmstad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Halmstad 1–0 IK brage

Halmstad beat IK brage 1-0 in Superettan on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.