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Halmstad vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
S. Karim 60'
J. Baffoe 45+2' (pen)
A. Muhsin 34'
5/14/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 7Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Halmstad54%
×Draw24%
AFC Eskilstuna22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.69
AFC Eskilstuna
0.98

Halmstad creates 72% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 76 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.79
AFC Eskilstuna
1.01

allows per match

Halmstad
0.95
AFC Eskilstuna
1.59

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
78%
Halmstad or AFC Eskilstuna
76%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
46%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
29%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
82%
Halmstad 2+ goals
50%
Halmstad 3+ goals
24%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
62%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
26%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
71%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 61 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.79 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.01 + Halmstad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Halmstad scores more
54%
level
24%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
22%

Halmstad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Muhsin
39'
M. Olsson← T. Boakye
45+2'
Felix Michel
45+2'
J. BaffoePenalty
60'
S. Karim
65'
A. Ekeroth← Felix Michel
76'
M. Boman← S. Karim
76'
Alexander Johansson← V. Dahlström
83'
Victor Fors
88'
A. Yakubu← R. Williams
88'
I. Shamoun← V. Fors
90+3'
A. Berntsson← S. Kroon

Possession

50%Halmstad

Shots

13Halmstad

Statistics

HalmstadAFC
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots11
4Corners6
8Fouls19
Shots
13Total Shots11
7On Target1
4Off Target6
2Blocked4
Passing
50%Possession50%
Discipline
8Fouls19
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Superettan: Halmstad 2–1 AFC Eskilstuna

Halmstad beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 in Superettan on May 14, 2022.

Goals: A. Muhsin (34'), J. Baffoe (45+2' pen), S. Karim (60').

Halmstad controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.